Who are the three most important Senators in Washington?

With the historic 2020 election still moving along with final vote tallies showing victory by Joe Biden and the nearly finished counting for other Senate and House seats, there still remains the outcome of the two Georgia Senate seats.  In both races, the Republican candidate did not win with 50% of the vote so under GA state law, a runoff election between the top two candidates will be held in January.  If the incumbent Republican senators are victorious in the January runoffs then the Senate will be comprised of 52 Rs and 48 Ds plus independents.  If the runoff races in GA split then the Rs will have 51 Senators and there will be 49 Ds and the Republicans would continue to control the Senate.  As of now, only  if the Dems win both runoffs in GA will the control of the Senate switch to the Ds because the seats would be 50 Democrats and 50 Republicans but VP Harris would hold the tie breaking vote in favor of the Ds.

Or, so we would like to think?  Why is that in doubt?

Well, Joe Manchin a Democrat from West Virginia who is next up for reelection in 4 years is a strong supporter of the Democratic party.  However, he does have a track record of crossing over to vote for certain Republican measures which would give the Rs an extra vote as a cushion if they control the Senate or control if the Rs are tied with the Dems with 50 votes.  That makes Senator Manchin one of the most important Senators in Washington for at least the next two years.

Likewise, Susan Collins a centrist Republican just re-elected in Maine for her 5th term in the Senate is a strong supporter of the Republican party.  However, she also has a track record of crossing over to vote for certain Democratic measures which would give the Ds an extra vote as a cushion if they control the Senate.  Or, if the Rs control the Senate with 51 votes, then a Collins defection to the Ds on a vote total will flip the power to the Ds who can use Harris to break a tie. If the Rs control the Senate with 52 votes, then a Collins defection puts into jeopardy the success of a R measure if the Ds can find one more Republican Senator to vote with the Ds instead of the Rs.  That makes Senator Collins one of the most important Senators in Washington, as well.

Finally, Mitt Romney a pragmatic Senator from Utah and former Presidential nominee for the Republicans does show an independent streak on some measures.  He may not vote with the Rs on all measures which means that like Senator Collins, Romney could control the outcome of a measure depending on whether the Rs control the Senate by one or two votes.  Or, as noted above with D control of the Senate, Romney can give a cushion of an extra vote to the Ds.  For all of the same reasons noted, that makes Senator Romney one of the most important Senators in Washington, too.

Now, the willingness to possibly cross over on a party line vote means that these three Senators will be able to demand, negotiate, shape, extract and fashion legislation in a manner that satisfies their concerns and addresses any, or most, of their objections before the measure is brought to a formal vote.  That power and influence will underscore the importance of these three Senators during the next two years.

So keep an eye on Senators McConnell and Schumer, Durbin and Thune and other strategists, but know that on tough legislative fights all roads will lead to the office doors of Senators Manchin, Collins and Romney.

By: Tim McTaggart, November 11, 2020