Are you ready for some (political) football…in 2024?
I am using the popular Sunday night football intro of, "Are you ready for some football?", to raise the issue of whether the country is ready to start thinking about 2024 already. We are not out of 2020 yet, and Trump has yet to offer a concession speech to President-elect Biden but you can rest assured that the professional political class is thinking about 2024 scenarios.
The critical first question is whether there will be a rematch of Biden vs. Trump in 2024. Trump no doubt with his expert branding would liken it to one of the classic heavyweight boxing championships held during his youth. Will it happen? Trump would clear the Republican field if he wanted to run again in 2024 with a new VP running mate.
My prediction is that Trump does not run again and instead he builds/rebuilds a billion dollar fortune, with a really swanky Presidential library in Florida, and he plays lots of golf. I think that he tries to be a kingmaker from the sidelines.
That immediately puts 70 million plus voters into play for the GOP. I presume that the moderate R brand of Larry Hogan from Maryland or Charlie Baker, fellow Governor, from Massachusetts will not appeal to the next round of Presidential primary voters for the Rs. Additionally, there will be tremendous tension between hard left potential candidates such as: Senator Josh Hawley, Senator Tom Cotton, former VP Pence, Senator Ted Cruz, Florida Governor DeSantis, SD Governor Kristi Noem, former Cong and Sec of State Mike Pompeo and probably others, against conservative but slightly more moderate potential candidates such as: Senator Tim Scott, former SC governor and UN ambassador Nikki Haley, Senator Marc Rubio and even maybe former Presidential nominee Mitt Romney at age 77. The hard left candidates will seek Trump's endorsement.
When all is said and done, my prediction would be to look for Tim Scott as the nominee for the Republicans in 2024.
Equally compelling is the storyline on the Democratic side because even if Trump were to run again in 2024, there might not be a rematch if Biden steps down after one term in office. I am assuming that the Republicans are looking at Biden as a placeholder and the GOP believes that Biden will step down and not run as an incumbent. That leaves an open seat for both parties to pursue.
There will be pressure on VP elect Harris to position herself as early as 2022 to be ready to make a run for President in 2024 on the assumption that Biden will only serve one term. My prediction is that Harris has the best chance of becoming the D nominee and elected as President in 2024 especially if her husband runs her campaign, not her sister but it will be a tremendous battle for her.
The primary field on the D side in 2024 will be crowded. I think that Bernie Saunders will run again at age 83 along with Elizabeth Warren at age 74. I think that you will see Rep. "AOC" jump in at age 35. Don't rule out a possible run by Al Gore at age 77, either. Additionally, there will be a number of Governors who will likely pursue the office including Andrew Cuomo of NY, Gina Raimondo from Rhode Island, possibly CA Governor Newsom but that crosses some big CA political third rails if Harris is running, Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, Phil Murphy from NJ. It might be a stretch but perhaps you will see Andrew Wang again, maybe Pete Buttieg but that will be tough if he is in the Biden administration cabinet, maybe on the rise KY Governor, Andy Beshear (46 in 2024) or a politician from PA. I think that the other D primary candidates from 2020 will remain on the sidelines in 2024.
If Biden seeks a second term, then all of the Ds will stand down for another four years.
By: Tim McTaggart